Borac Cacak vs Naftagas Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Borac Cacak and 1.20 for Naftagas, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Borac Cacak the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.20 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Borac Cacak home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Naftagas away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Borac Cacak to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 28% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Borac Cacak and 1.20 for Naftagas, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Borac Cacak win36%

Draw28%

Naftagas win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–113.1%
0–110.9%
1–010.9%
0–09.1%
1–27.8%

Recent form

Borac Cacak

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs TSC Backa Topola · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Teleoptik · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Metalac GM · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs OFK Bor 1919 · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Grafičar · 2-1 (W)

Naftagas

2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV · 6-0 (W)
2026-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Jedinstvo Ub · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Javor · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs TSC Backa Topola · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Teleoptik · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Prva Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	TSC Backa Topola	14	8	6	0	18	30
2	Borac Cacak	14	9	2	3	7	29
3	Javor	14	7	6	1	18	27
4	Semendrija 1924	14	7	4	3	7	25
5	OFK Vršac	14	8	1	5	4	25
6	Napredak	14	6	3	5	-1	21
7	FK Vozdovac	14	5	4	5	2	19
8	Loznica	14	4	7	3	-2	19
9	Dubočica	14	5	4	5	-2	19
10	Metalac GM	14	5	3	6	-3	18
11	FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV	14	4	4	6	-6	16
12	Naftagas	14	3	6	5	4	15
13	Teleoptik	14	3	4	7	-7	13
14	Grafičar	14	3	2	9	-9	11
15	Jedinstvo Ub	14	3	2	9	-10	11
16	OFK Bor 1919	14	2	2	10	-20	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.