Meadow Park · Referee Niall Smith · Analysis updated 04:35 UTC
Boreham Wood vs Boston United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Boreham Wood and 1.07 for Boston United, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Boreham Wood the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Boreham Wood win
58.5% probability
Expected goals
1.98 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Boreham Wood home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Boston United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Boreham Wood to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 22% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.98 goals for Boreham Wood and 1.07 for Boston United, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–09.3%
- 3–16.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.1%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.53 | 60.9% | 63.6% | 1.57 | +2.7 |
| Match result | Away | 5.10 | 17.8% | 20.0% | 5.00 | +2.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.30 | 39.6% | 41.5% | 2.41 | +1.9 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.15 | 42.2% | 43.4% | 2.30 | +1.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.17 | 77.8% | 78.5% | 1.27 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.30 | 40.6% | 41.2% | 2.43 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Home | 1.55 | 58.6% | 58.5% | 1.71 | -0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.57 | 59.4% | 58.8% | 1.70 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.57 | 57.8% | 56.6% | 1.77 | -1.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.85 | 23.6% | 21.5% | 4.65 | -2.1 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.38 | 39.1% | 36.4% | 2.75 | -2.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.10 | 82.7% | 80.0% | 1.25 | -2.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Boreham Wood
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Fylde · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Middlesbrough U21 · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Woking · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Sutton Utd · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Altrincham · 3-1 (W)
Boston United
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Eastleigh · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Scunthorpe · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Southampton U21 · 5-6 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Southend · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Yeovil Town · 0-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 38 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 31 |
| 3 | Southend | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 28 |
| 4 | Worthing | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 27 |
| 5 | Altrincham | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 27 |
| 6 | Yeovil Town | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 25 |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 23 |
| 8 | FC Halifax Town | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 21 |
| 9 | Barrow | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 10 | AFC Hornchurch | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -5 | 21 |
| 11 | Carlisle | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 12 | Kidderminster Harriers | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 13 | Woking | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 18 |
| 14 | Aldershot Town | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 18 |
| 15 | Eastleigh | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 18 |
| 16 | Sutton Utd | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 18 |
| 17 | Forest Green | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 18 | Wealdstone | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 19 | Hartlepool | 14 | 5 | 0 | 9 | -6 | 15 |
| 20 | Tamworth | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 14 |
| 21 | Boston United | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 12 |
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -7 | 10 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 7 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Boreham Wood win, at 58.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.