· Analysis updated 16:43 UTC
Borgosesia vs Bra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.86 expected goals for Borgosesia and 1.24 for Bra, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Bra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bra win
45.1% probability
Expected goals
0.86 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Borgosesia home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bra away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.2%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–012.2%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–29.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.85 (model 59.0% vs market 48.6%, edge +10.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.85 | 48.6% | 59.0% | 1.69 | +10.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.73 | 54.3% | 54.9% | 1.82 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Home | 3.50 | 25.2% | 25.7% | 3.89 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 70.6% | 70.8% | 1.41 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.00 | 29.4% | 29.2% | 3.42 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 1.95 | 45.3% | 45.1% | 2.22 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.25 | 75.1% | 74.3% | 1.35 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 51.4% | 41.0% | 2.44 | -10.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Borgosesia
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Millesimo · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sestri Levante · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chisola · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Valenzana · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bra · 1-1 (D)
Bra
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Saluzzo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Celle Varazze · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanremese · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Borgosesia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Biellese · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · Borgosesia 1-1 Bra (Serie D - Girone A)
- 2024-04-07T13:00:00.000Z · Borgosesia 0-1 Bra (Serie D - Girone A)
- 2023-11-25T13:30:00.000Z · Borgosesia 1-2 Bra (Serie D - Girone A)
- 2023-01-15T13:30:00.000Z · Borgosesia 1-2 Bra (Serie D - Girone A)
- 2022-09-11T13:00:00.000Z · Borgosesia 1-1 Bra (Serie D - Girone A)
- 2022-02-27T13:30:00.000Z · Borgosesia 0-0 Bra (Serie D - Girone A)
- 2021-10-20T13:00:00.000Z · Borgosesia 1-2 Bra (Serie D - Girone A)
- 2020-01-05T13:30:00.000Z · Borgosesia 1-1 Bra (Serie D - Girone A)
- 2019-09-01T13:00:00.000Z · Borgosesia 4-3 Bra (Serie D - Girone A)
Serie D - Girone A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandria | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Biellese | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | Derthona | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
| 4 | Ligorna | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Asti | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Gozzano | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Saluzzo | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Millesimo | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Chisola | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Imperia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Lascaris | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Sanremese | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 13 | Fezzanese | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | Sestri Levante | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Borgosesia | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Bra | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 17 | Valenzana | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 18 | Celle Varazze | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bra win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.