Bornova 1877 vs Balıkesirspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Bornova 1877 and 2.23 for Balıkesirspor, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Balıkesirspor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Balıkesirspor win

65.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 2.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bornova 1877 home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Balıkesirspor away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Balıkesirspor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 16% / 19% / 65% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Bornova 1877 and 2.23 for Balıkesirspor, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Bornova 1877 win16%

Draw19%

Balıkesirspor win65%

Double chance 1X

35%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

84%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

0–29.8%
1–29.8%
0–18.8%
1–18.8%
0–37.3%

Recent form

Bornova 1877

2026-04-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Balıkesirspor · 1-4 (L)
2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kütahyaspor · 0-2 (L)
2026-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Karsiyaka · 0-5 (L)
2026-03-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tire 2021 FK · 4-2 (W)
2026-03-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Söke 1970 · 2-3 (L)

Balıkesirspor

2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Akşehirspor · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Bigaspor · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Bigaspor · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Eskişehirspor · 1-7 (L)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Uşak Spor · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. Lig - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kütahyaspor	30	24	3	3	51	75
2	Eskişehirspor	30	22	5	3	56	71
3	Karsiyaka	30	20	7	3	45	67
4	Ayvalikgucu	30	18	5	7	32	59
5	Balıkesirspor	30	17	7	6	35	58
6	Uşak Spor	30	15	3	12	0	48
7	Denizli İYG	30	14	5	11	4	47
8	Alanya 1221 FK	30	10	8	12	-5	38
9	Tire 2021 FK	30	10	7	13	8	37
10	Söke 1970	30	10	5	15	-4	35
11	Anadolu Üniversitesi	30	9	8	13	2	35
12	Altay	30	9	7	14	-12	28
13	İzmir Çoruhlu FK	30	6	5	19	-38	23
14	Afjet Afyonspor	30	5	7	18	-30	22
15	Bornova 1877	30	5	6	19	-33	21
16	Nazilli Spor	30	0	4	26	-111	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Balıkesirspor win, at 65.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.