Borussia Dortmund II vs Schalke 04 II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund II and 1.72 for Schalke 04 II, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives Borussia Dortmund II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Borussia Dortmund II win

47.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.13 – 1.72

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Borussia Dortmund II home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Schalke 04 II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Borussia Dortmund II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 21% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.13 goals for Borussia Dortmund II and 1.72 for Schalke 04 II, a combined 3.85 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Borussia Dortmund II win47%

Draw21%

Schalke 04 II win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals54%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

2–18.3%
1–17.8%
2–27.1%
1–26.7%
3–15.9%

Recent form

Borussia Dortmund II

2026-10-23T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Bonner SC · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Wiedenbrück · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SG Wattenscheid 09 · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportfreunde Siegen · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Bocholt · 4-2 (W)

Schalke 04 II

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hilden · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Köln II · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Westfalia Rhynern · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bergisch Gladbach · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bochum II · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - West table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund II	14	10	4	0	17	34
2	Rot-weiss Oberhausen	13	10	1	2	19	31
3	FC Gutersloh	14	9	2	3	11	29
4	Borussia M'gladbach II	14	8	2	4	13	26
5	Sportfreunde Siegen	14	7	4	3	11	25
6	Köln II	14	6	3	5	3	21
7	Westfalia Rhynern	14	6	3	5	-2	21
8	Schalke 04 II	14	6	2	6	2	20
9	Hilden	14	5	4	5	-5	19
10	Bonner SC	14	4	6	4	1	18
11	FC Bocholt	14	4	5	5	-3	17
12	Bergisch Gladbach	14	5	2	7	-8	17
13	Bochum II	13	4	3	6	-5	15
14	Paderborn II	13	3	5	5	-4	14
15	SG Wattenscheid 09	13	3	3	7	-6	12
16	SV Rodinghausen	14	2	4	8	-7	10
17	Wiedenbrück	14	2	2	10	-19	8
18	Sportfreunde Lotte	14	1	3	10	-18	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Borussia Dortmund II win, at 47.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.