Borussia Dortmund II vs Sportfreunde Lotte Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.45 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund II and 1.08 for Sportfreunde Lotte, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives Borussia Dortmund II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Borussia Dortmund II win

67.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.45 – 1.08

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Borussia Dortmund II home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sportfreunde Lotte away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Borussia Dortmund II win68%

Draw18%

Sportfreunde Lotte win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

33%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

2–19.5%
2–08.8%
3–17.8%
1–17.8%
3–07.2%

Recent form

Borussia Dortmund II

2026-10-23T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Bonner SC · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Wiedenbrück · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SG Wattenscheid 09 · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportfreunde Siegen · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Bocholt · 4-2 (W)

Sportfreunde Lotte

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportfreunde Siegen · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Bocholt · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Paderborn II · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SV Rodinghausen · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia M'gladbach II · 0-5 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-01-30T18:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund II 1-1 Sportfreunde Lotte (Regionalliga - West)
2025-08-10T12:00:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund II 5-3 Sportfreunde Lotte (Regionalliga - West)
2021-01-31T14:00:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund II 4-0 Sportfreunde Lotte (Regionalliga - West)
2020-09-16T17:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund II 2-0 Sportfreunde Lotte (Regionalliga - West)
2019-12-14T13:00:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund II 1-1 Sportfreunde Lotte (Regionalliga - West)
2019-08-04T14:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund II 2-1 Sportfreunde Lotte (Regionalliga - West)

Regionalliga - West table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rot-weiss Oberhausen	14	11	1	2	22	34
2	Borussia Dortmund II	14	10	4	0	17	34
3	FC Gutersloh	14	9	2	3	11	29
4	Borussia M'gladbach II	14	8	2	4	13	26
5	Sportfreunde Siegen	14	7	4	3	11	25
6	Köln II	14	6	3	5	3	21
7	Westfalia Rhynern	14	6	3	5	-2	21
8	Schalke 04 II	14	6	2	6	2	20
9	Hilden	14	5	4	5	-5	19
10	Bonner SC	14	4	6	4	1	18
11	FC Bocholt	14	4	5	5	-3	17
12	Bergisch Gladbach	14	5	2	7	-8	17
13	Bochum II	13	4	3	6	-5	15
14	Paderborn II	13	3	5	5	-4	14
15	SG Wattenscheid 09	14	3	3	8	-9	12
16	SV Rodinghausen	14	2	4	8	-7	10
17	Wiedenbrück	14	2	2	10	-19	8
18	Sportfreunde Lotte	14	1	3	10	-18	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Borussia Dortmund II win, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.