Signal Iduna Park · Analysis updated 06:46 UTC
Borussia Dortmund vs 1899 Hoffenheim Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.58 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.08 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives Borussia Dortmund the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Borussia Dortmund win
69.6% probability
Expected goals
2.58 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Borussia Dortmund home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
1899 Hoffenheim away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Borussia Dortmund to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 17% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.58 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.08 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined 3.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 2–08.6%
- 3–18.0%
- 3–07.4%
- 1–17.2%
Recent form
Borussia Dortmund
- 2026-10-20T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Sabah FA · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Union Berlin · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bodo/Glimt · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs VfB Stuttgart · 1-0 (W)
1899 Hoffenheim
- 2026-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Beşiktaş · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Paderborn 07 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T16:45:00.000Z · A vs OFI · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 17 |
| 2 | Bayern München | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 14 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 13 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 12 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | FSV Mainz 05 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | SV Elversberg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 9 | FC Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Hamburger SV | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 9 |
| 11 | 1. FC Köln | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | FC Schalke 04 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -12 | 6 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Borussia Dortmund win, at 69.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.