Signal Iduna Park · Analysis updated 16:38 UTC
Borussia Dortmund vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 2.15 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 4.15. That distribution gives FSV Mainz 05 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.0% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 2.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Borussia Dortmund home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FSV Mainz 05 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.3%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–16.8%
- 2–16.8%
- 1–35.2%
Recent form
Borussia Dortmund
- 2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs VfB Stuttgart · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Paderborn 07 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 3-2 (W)
FSV Mainz 05
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Waldhof Mannheim · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-13T19:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 4-0 FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga)
- 2025-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 2-0 FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga)
- 2025-03-30T15:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 3-1 FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga)
- 2024-11-09T14:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 1-3 FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga)
- 2024-05-11T16:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 0-3 FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga)
- 2023-12-19T19:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 1-1 FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga)
- 2023-05-27T13:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 2-2 FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga)
- 2023-01-25T17:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 2-1 FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga)
- 2022-03-16T17:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 1-0 FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga)
- 2021-10-16T13:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 3-1 FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.