Signal Iduna Park · Referee Harm Osmers, Germany · Analysis updated 04:35 UTC
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.51 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 0.84 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Borussia Dortmund the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Borussia Dortmund win
73.7% probability
Expected goals
2.51 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Borussia Dortmund home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
SC Paderborn 07 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.1%
- 2–19.3%
- 3–09.2%
- 1–08.8%
- 3–17.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.15 (model 47.9% vs market 43.7%, edge +4.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.15 | 43.7% | 47.9% | 2.09 | +4.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.07 | 89.1% | 89.6% | 1.12 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 3.70 | 25.8% | 26.3% | 3.80 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Away | 9.00 | 10.3% | 10.4% | 9.62 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.80 | 15.9% | 15.9% | 6.29 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.25 | 73.8% | 73.7% | 1.36 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.12 | 85.1% | 84.1% | 1.19 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 56.3% | 52.1% | 1.92 | -4.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Borussia Dortmund
- 2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-20T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Sabah FA · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Union Berlin · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bodo/Glimt · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen · 2-2 (D)
SC Paderborn 07
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs VfB Stuttgart · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-30T23:30:00.000Z · A vs DC United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · H vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Freiburg · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 3-0 SC Paderborn 07 (Bundesliga)
- 2021-02-02T19:45:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 3-2 SC Paderborn 07 (DFB Pokal)
- 2020-08-28T13:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 1-1 SC Paderborn 07 (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2020-05-31T16:00:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 6-1 SC Paderborn 07 (Bundesliga)
- 2019-11-22T19:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 3-3 SC Paderborn 07 (Bundesliga)
- 2015-10-28T18:00:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 7-1 SC Paderborn 07 (DFB Pokal)
- 2015-04-18T13:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 3-0 SC Paderborn 07 (Bundesliga)
- 2014-11-22T14:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 2-2 SC Paderborn 07 (Bundesliga)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 17 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 12 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | FSV Mainz 05 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | SV Elversberg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 9 | FC Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 9 |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | FC Schalke 04 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -12 | 6 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Borussia Dortmund win, at 73.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.