Signal Iduna Park · Analysis updated 13:40 UTC
Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.65 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 0.75 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 4.40. That distribution gives Borussia Dortmund the largest share of the 1X2 market at 88%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 88% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Borussia Dortmund win
88.2% probability
Expected goals
3.65 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Borussia Dortmund home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Union Berlin away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
96%
Double chance 12
92%
Double chance X2
12%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–010.0%
- 4–09.1%
- 2–08.2%
- 3–17.5%
- 4–16.8%
Recent form
Borussia Dortmund
- 2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs VfB Stuttgart · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Paderborn 07 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 3-2 (W)
Union Berlin
- 2026-09-26T17:15:00.000Z · A vs HNK Rijeka · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bayern München · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Schalke 04 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-24T17:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 3-0 Union Berlin (Bundesliga)
- 2025-08-31T15:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 3-0 Union Berlin (Bundesliga)
- 2025-02-22T17:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 6-0 Union Berlin (Bundesliga)
- 2024-10-05T13:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 1-2 Union Berlin (Bundesliga)
- 2024-03-02T14:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Union Berlin (Bundesliga)
- 2023-10-07T13:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 4-2 Union Berlin (Bundesliga)
- 2023-04-08T13:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Union Berlin (Bundesliga)
- 2022-10-16T15:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 0-2 Union Berlin (Bundesliga)
- 2022-02-13T14:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 3-0 Union Berlin (Bundesliga)
- 2021-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 4-2 Union Berlin (Bundesliga)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Borussia Dortmund win, at 88.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 88% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.