Signal Iduna Park · Referee Christian Dingert, Germany · Analysis updated 19:45 UTC
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.26 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 0.84 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Borussia Dortmund the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Borussia Dortmund win
69.5% probability
Expected goals
2.26 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Borussia Dortmund home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Werder Bremen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.5%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.7%
- 3–08.7%
- 1–18.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.20 (model 49.1% vs market 43.2%, edge +5.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.20 | 43.2% | 49.1% | 2.04 | +5.9 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 3.30 | 28.9% | 30.5% | 3.28 | +1.6 |
| Match result | Away | 7.50 | 12.1% | 12.4% | 8.06 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.00 | 18.1% | 18.1% | 5.52 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.30 | 69.8% | 69.5% | 1.44 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.08 | 88.2% | 87.6% | 1.14 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.15 | 82.9% | 81.9% | 1.22 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 56.8% | 50.9% | 1.96 | -5.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Borussia Dortmund
- 2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs VfB Stuttgart · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Paderborn 07 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 3-2 (W)
Werder Bremen
- 2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Augsburg · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Köln · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Leipzig · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-16T13:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Werder Bremen (Bundesliga)
- 2026-01-13T19:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 3-0 Werder Bremen (Bundesliga)
- 2025-01-25T14:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Werder Bremen (Bundesliga)
- 2024-08-31T13:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 0-0 Werder Bremen (Bundesliga)
- 2024-03-09T17:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Werder Bremen (Bundesliga)
- 2023-10-20T18:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 1-0 Werder Bremen (Bundesliga)
- 2023-02-11T14:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Werder Bremen (Bundesliga)
- 2022-08-20T13:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 2-3 Werder Bremen (Bundesliga)
- 2021-04-18T13:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 4-1 Werder Bremen (Bundesliga)
- 2020-12-15T19:30:00.000Z · Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Werder Bremen (Bundesliga)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Borussia Dortmund win, at 69.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.