Borussia Hildesheim vs Verden 04 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for Borussia Hildesheim and 1.73 for Verden 04, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Verden 04 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Verden 04 win

56.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.92 – 1.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Borussia Hildesheim home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Verden 04 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Verden 04 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 20% / 24% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.92 goals for Borussia Hildesheim and 1.73 for Verden 04, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Borussia Hildesheim win20%

Draw24%

Verden 04 win56%

Double chance 1X

44%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

80%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

0–112.2%
1–111.3%
0–210.5%
1–29.7%
0–07.1%

Recent form

Borussia Hildesheim

2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Heeslinger SC · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Lüneburger SK Hansa · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Schwarz-Weiß Rehden · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs BW Lohne · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hemmingen · 3-0 (W)

Verden 04

2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Meppen II · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Braunschw. II · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Heeslinger SC · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lüneburger SK Hansa · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Wilhelmshaven · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Niedersachsen table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Eintracht Braunschw. II	11	7	2	2	16	23
2	Heeslinger SC	11	6	4	1	17	22
3	Wilhelmshaven	10	6	3	1	13	21
4	Spelle-Venhaus	10	6	3	1	11	21
5	Schwarz-Weiß Rehden	10	6	3	1	10	21
6	Borussia Hildesheim	10	6	2	2	7	20
7	BW Lohne	10	5	2	3	6	17
8	Bersenbrück	10	5	1	4	4	16
9	Meppen II	11	5	1	5	-2	16
10	Nordhorn	11	3	3	5	-13	12
11	Verden 04	11	2	4	5	-3	10
12	Germania Egestorf	10	2	3	5	-9	9
13	Hemmingen	10	2	1	7	-19	7
14	Lüneburger SK Hansa	10	0	6	4	-5	6
15	Vorsfelde	11	1	2	8	-19	5
16	Drochtersen/Assel II	10	1	0	9	-14	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Verden 04 win, at 56.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.