· Analysis updated 06:36 UTC
Borussia M'gladbach II vs Bonner SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.39 expected goals for Borussia M'gladbach II and 1.42 for Bonner SC, a combined total of 3.81. That distribution gives Borussia M'gladbach II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Borussia M'gladbach II win
59.1% probability
Expected goals
2.39 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Borussia M'gladbach II home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Bonner SC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Borussia M'gladbach II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 19% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.39 goals for Borussia M'gladbach II and 1.42 for Bonner SC, a combined 3.81 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.0%
- 1–17.5%
- 3–17.2%
- 2–26.4%
- 2–06.3%
Recent form
Borussia M'gladbach II
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportfreunde Lotte · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-weiss Oberhausen · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Stoke City U21 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Gutersloh · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund II · 0-0 (D)
Bonner SC
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Wiedenbrück · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-02T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Westfalia Rhynern · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SG Wattenscheid 09 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bergisch Gladbach · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportfreunde Siegen · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - West table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rot-weiss Oberhausen | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 31 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund II | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 28 |
| 3 | Borussia M'gladbach II | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 23 |
| 4 | FC Gutersloh | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
| 5 | Sportfreunde Siegen | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | Bonner SC | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 7 | Schalke 04 II | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | Westfalia Rhynern | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 9 | Bergisch Gladbach | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 16 |
| 10 | Hilden | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 15 |
| 11 | Köln II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Bochum II | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 14 |
| 13 | FC Bocholt | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 | Paderborn II | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 | SG Wattenscheid 09 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 | SV Rodinghausen | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 9 |
| 17 | Wiedenbrück | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -15 | 8 |
| 18 | Sportfreunde Lotte | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Borussia M'gladbach II win, at 59.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.