Borussia-Park · Analysis updated 19:45 UTC
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1899 Hoffenheim Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 2.83 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 5.33. That distribution gives 1899 Hoffenheim the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 90% for over 2.5 goals and 86% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
1899 Hoffenheim win
46.6% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 2.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Borussia Mönchengladbach home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
1899 Hoffenheim away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.1%
- 2–35.7%
- 3–25.1%
- 1–24.9%
- 3–34.8%
Recent form
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FC St. Pauli · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-24T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Sportfreunde Siegen · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs FSV Mainz 05 · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Freiburg · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Elversberg · 3-4 (L)
1899 Hoffenheim
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Paderborn 07 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T16:45:00.000Z · A vs OFI · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs VfB Stuttgart · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-16T13:30:00.000Z · Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-0 1899 Hoffenheim (Bundesliga)
- 2026-01-14T19:30:00.000Z · Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-5 1899 Hoffenheim (Bundesliga)
- 2025-05-03T13:30:00.000Z · Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-4 1899 Hoffenheim (Bundesliga)
- 2024-12-21T14:30:00.000Z · Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-1 1899 Hoffenheim (Bundesliga)
- 2024-04-20T13:30:00.000Z · Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4 1899 Hoffenheim (Bundesliga)
- 2023-12-02T14:30:00.000Z · Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-1 1899 Hoffenheim (Bundesliga)
- 2023-01-28T14:30:00.000Z · Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-1 1899 Hoffenheim (Bundesliga)
- 2022-08-06T13:30:00.000Z · Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-1 1899 Hoffenheim (Bundesliga)
- 2022-05-14T13:30:00.000Z · Borussia Mönchengladbach 5-1 1899 Hoffenheim (Bundesliga)
- 2021-12-18T14:30:00.000Z · Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 1899 Hoffenheim (Bundesliga)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is 1899 Hoffenheim win, at 46.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 86% and over 2.5 goals at 90%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.