Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Schalke 04 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 2.20 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 3.87. That distribution gives FC Schalke 04 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

FC Schalke 04 win

49.9% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.67 – 2.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Borussia Mönchengladbach home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Schalke 04 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Schalke 04 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 30% / 20% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 2.20 for FC Schalke 04, a combined 3.87 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Borussia Mönchengladbach win30%

Draw20%

FC Schalke 04 win50%

Double chance 1X

50%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals54%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

1–28.4%
1–17.6%
2–27.0%
2–16.4%
1–36.2%

Recent form

Borussia Mönchengladbach

2026-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · H vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Köln · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FC St. Pauli · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-24T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Sportfreunde Siegen · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs FSV Mainz 05 · 3-4 (L)

FC Schalke 04

2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Freiburg · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Austria Lustenau · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-weiss Oberhausen · 5-2 (W)
2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Elversberg · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Union Berlin · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Bundesliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bayern München	6	4	2	0	17	14
2	Borussia Dortmund	6	4	2	0	7	14
3	SC Freiburg	6	4	1	1	9	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen	6	4	1	1	7	13
5	FSV Mainz 05	6	3	1	2	4	10
6	SV Elversberg	6	3	1	2	1	10
7	RB Leipzig	6	3	0	3	5	9
8	Werder Bremen	6	2	3	1	0	9
9	Hamburger SV	6	3	0	3	-9	9
10	FC Augsburg	6	2	2	2	4	8
11	Eintracht Frankfurt	6	2	2	2	-6	8
12	1. FC Köln	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	VfB Stuttgart	6	2	0	4	-2	6
14	1899 Hoffenheim	6	2	0	4	-3	6
15	FC Schalke 04	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	SC Paderborn 07	6	1	2	3	-4	5
17	Union Berlin	6	1	2	3	-12	5
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FC Schalke 04 win, at 49.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.