Asim Ferhatović Hase · Referee Rade Obrenovič, Slovenia · Analysis updated 15:29 UTC
Bosnia & Herzegovina vs FYR Macedonia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Bosnia & Herzegovina and 0.87 for FYR Macedonia, a combined total of 2.87. That distribution gives Bosnia & Herzegovina the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bosnia & Herzegovina win
63.6% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bosnia & Herzegovina home form
5 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
FYR Macedonia away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bosnia & Herzegovina to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 21% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Bosnia & Herzegovina and 0.87 for FYR Macedonia, a combined 2.87 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.3%
- 2–011.3%
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–07.5%
Recent form
Bosnia & Herzegovina
- 2026-09-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Romania · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Poland · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-02T00:00:00.000Z · A vs USA · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-24T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Qatar · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-06-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Switzerland · 1-4 (L)
FYR Macedonia
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Scotland · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Slovenia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Switzerland · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-06-01T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Türkiye · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bosnia & Herzegovina · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bosnia & Herzegovina win, at 63.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.