Bilino Polje · Referee C. Turpin · Analysis updated 03:30 UTC
Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Italy Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Bosnia & Herzegovina and 1.78 for Italy, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Italy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.8% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bosnia & Herzegovina home form
5 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Italy away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Italy to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 36% / 23% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Bosnia & Herzegovina and 1.78 for Italy, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.5%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.9%
- 2–27.0%
- 0–15.8%
Recent form
Bosnia & Herzegovina
- 2026-09-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Romania · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Poland · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-02T00:00:00.000Z · A vs USA · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-24T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Qatar · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-06-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Switzerland · 1-4 (L)
Italy
- 2026-10-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Türkiye · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T18:45:00.000Z · A vs France · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Türkiye · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Belgium · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-07T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Greece · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
World Cup - Qualification Europe table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 15 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 12 |
| 3 | Northern Ireland | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Luxembourg | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 0 |
| 1 | Switzerland | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 14 |
| 2 | Kosovo | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
| 3 | Slovenia | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -5 | 4 |
| 4 | Sweden | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 2 |
| 1 | Scotland | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 2 | Denmark | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 11 |
| 3 | Greece | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 4 | Belarus | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -13 | 2 |
| 1 | France | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 16 |
| 2 | Ukraine | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 3 | Iceland | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Azerbaijan | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -13 | 1 |
| 1 | Spain | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 16 |
| 2 | Türkiye | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Georgia | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 3 |
| 4 | Bulgaria | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -16 | 3 |
| 1 | Portugal | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 |
| 2 | Rep. Of Ireland | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 3 | Hungary | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 4 | Armenia | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -16 | 3 |
| 1 | Netherlands | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 20 |
| 2 | Poland | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 3 | Finland | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 4 | Malta | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -15 | 5 |
| 5 | Lithuania | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 1 | Austria | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 19 |
| 2 | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 3 | Romania | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 13 |
| 4 | Cyprus | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 5 | San Marino | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -37 | 0 |
| 1 | Norway | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 24 |
| 2 | Italy | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | Israel | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 4 | Estonia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 4 |
| 5 | Moldova | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -27 | 1 |
| 1 | Belgium | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 22 | 18 |
| 2 | Wales | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 3 | FYR Macedonia | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 5 | Liechtenstein | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -31 | 0 |
| 1 | England | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 24 |
| 2 | Albania | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 3 | Serbia | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 4 | Latvia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 5 |
| 5 | Andorra | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 1 |
| 1 | Croatia | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 22 |
| 2 | Czech Republic | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 3 | Faroe Islands | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Montenegro | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 9 |
| 5 | Gibraltar | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -25 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.