Pavel Srnicek Football Ground · Analysis updated 14:42 UTC
Bospor Bohumín vs Třinec Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.74 expected goals for Bospor Bohumín and 1.37 for Třinec, a combined total of 4.11. That distribution gives Bospor Bohumín the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bospor Bohumín win
66.2% probability
Expected goals
2.74 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bospor Bohumín home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Třinec away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bospor Bohumín to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 17% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.74 goals for Bospor Bohumín and 1.37 for Třinec, a combined 4.11 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.4%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–16.1%
- 2–06.1%
- 2–25.8%
Recent form
Bospor Bohumín
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Jiskra Rýmařov · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vratimov · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Šumperk · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Kravare · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Nový Jičín · 4-2 (W)
Třinec
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Podbeskidzie · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Žižkov · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Mlada Boleslav · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Karviná · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vlašim · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bospor Bohumín win, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.