· Analysis updated 14:00 UTC
Bossekop vs Kongsvinger II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.32 expected goals for Bossekop and 2.79 for Kongsvinger II, a combined total of 5.10. That distribution gives Kongsvinger II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 88% for over 2.5 goals and 84% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kongsvinger II win
49.1% probability
Expected goals
2.32 – 2.79
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bossekop home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kongsvinger II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kongsvinger II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 33% / 18% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.32 goals for Bossekop and 2.79 for Kongsvinger II, a combined 5.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.3%
- 2–35.9%
- 1–25.5%
- 1–35.1%
- 3–24.9%
Recent form
Bossekop
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Skedsmo · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kongsvinger II · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Fløya · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Skjetten · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ulfstind · 4-3 (W)
Kongsvinger II
- 2026-09-21T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Tromsø II · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Fløya · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Skjervøy · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulfstind · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Alta · 0-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skedsmo | 25 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 56 |
| 2 | Fløya | 25 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 34 | 51 |
| 3 | Harstad | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 49 |
| 4 | Alta | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 45 |
| 5 | Finnsnes | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 40 |
| 6 | Kongsvinger II | 25 | 11 | 2 | 12 | -17 | 35 |
| 7 | Strømsgodset II | 25 | 10 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 33 |
| 8 | Skjetten | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 33 |
| 9 | Lillestrøm II | 25 | 10 | 1 | 14 | 16 | 31 |
| 10 | Fauske Sprint | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | -19 | 31 |
| 11 | Tromsø II | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 27 |
| 12 | Skjervøy | 24 | 8 | 3 | 13 | -23 | 27 |
| 13 | Bossekop | 24 | 5 | 4 | 15 | -43 | 19 |
| 14 | Ulfstind | 25 | 4 | 3 | 18 | -53 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kongsvinger II win, at 49.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 84% and over 2.5 goals at 88%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.