Boston Stadium · Referee John Griggs, USA · Analysis updated 10:37 UTC
Boston Legacy W vs Racing Louisville W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Boston Legacy W and 1.53 for Racing Louisville W, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Boston Legacy W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Boston Legacy W win
49.4% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Boston Legacy W home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Racing Louisville W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Boston Legacy W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 22% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.03 goals for Boston Legacy W and 1.53 for Racing Louisville W, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.0%
- 1–18.9%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–26.8%
- 3–16.1%
Recent form
Boston Legacy W
- 2026-09-20T18:05:00.000Z · H vs Houston Dash W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Washington Spirit W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Utah Royals W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Angel City W · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-22T23:30:00.000Z · A vs North Carolina Courage W · 1-2 (L)
Racing Louisville W
- 2026-09-25T22:30:00.000Z · H vs San Diego Wave W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T23:05:00.000Z · A vs Bay FC W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T22:30:00.000Z · H vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Angel City W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T02:00:00.000Z · A vs San Diego Wave W · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NWSL Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NJ/NY Gotham FC W | 28 | 16 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 55 |
| 2 | San Diego Wave W | 28 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 54 |
| 3 | Washington Spirit W | 28 | 16 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 52 |
| 4 | Angel City W | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 49 |
| 5 | Kansas City W | 28 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 47 |
| 6 | Utah Royals W | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 47 |
| 7 | Portland Thorns W | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 47 |
| 8 | Seattle Reign FC W | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 44 |
| 9 | North Carolina Courage W | 29 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 42 |
| 10 | Denver Summit W | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 41 |
| 11 | Orlando Pride W | 28 | 11 | 3 | 14 | -6 | 36 |
| 12 | Houston Dash W | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | -4 | 33 |
| 13 | Boston Legacy W | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 32 |
| 14 | Bay FC W | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | -16 | 27 |
| 15 | Racing Louisville W | 29 | 7 | 3 | 19 | -22 | 24 |
| 16 | Chicago Red Stars W | 29 | 5 | 2 | 22 | -52 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Boston Legacy W win, at 49.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.