Jakemans Community Stadium · Referee Lewis Smith · Analysis updated 15:12 UTC
Boston United vs Wealdstone Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Boston United and 1.25 for Wealdstone, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Boston United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.6% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Boston United home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Wealdstone away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Boston United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 26% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Boston United and 1.25 for Wealdstone, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–010.0%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–27.8%
Recent form
Boston United
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Yeovil Town · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs FC Halifax Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Fylde · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Forest Green · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Woking · 1-1 (D)
Wealdstone
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Barrow · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Forest Green · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gateshead · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Tamworth · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs FC Halifax Town · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 35 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 28 |
| 3 | Southend | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 27 |
| 4 | Yeovil Town | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 25 |
| 5 | Worthing | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 24 |
| 6 | Altrincham | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 24 |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 23 |
| 8 | Barrow | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 9 | AFC Hornchurch | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 21 |
| 10 | FC Halifax Town | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 20 |
| 11 | Kidderminster Harriers | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 12 | Aldershot Town | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 13 | Sutton Utd | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 18 |
| 14 | Carlisle | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 15 | Woking | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 15 |
| 16 | Forest Green | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 17 | Eastleigh | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 15 |
| 18 | Tamworth | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 14 |
| 19 | Wealdstone | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -7 | 12 |
| 20 | Hartlepool | 13 | 4 | 0 | 9 | -7 | 12 |
| 21 | Boston United | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 12 |
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 10 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | -22 | 7 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.