· Analysis updated 22:00 UTC
Botafogo SP U20 vs Desportivo Brasil U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Botafogo SP U20 and 1.03 for Desportivo Brasil U20, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Desportivo Brasil U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.3% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Botafogo SP U20 home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Desportivo Brasil U20 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Desportivo Brasil U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 32% / 31% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Botafogo SP U20 and 1.03 for Desportivo Brasil U20, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.6%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–113.5%
- 1–013.2%
- 0–27.5%
Recent form
Botafogo SP U20
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Palmeiras U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Palmeiras U20 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Osasco Audax U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Osasco Audax U20 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs EC São Bernardo U20 · 1-1 (D)
Desportivo Brasil U20
- 2026-10-17T18:45:00.000Z · A vs São Paulo U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs São Paulo U20 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Oeste U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Oeste U20 · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Oeste U20 · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paulista - U20 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.