· Analysis updated 13:46 UTC
Botafogo SP U20 vs Palmeiras U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Botafogo SP U20 and 1.29 for Palmeiras U20, a combined total of 2.32. That distribution gives Palmeiras U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.3% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.29
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Botafogo SP U20 home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Palmeiras U20 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Palmeiras U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 30% / 28% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Botafogo SP U20 and 1.29 for Palmeiras U20, a combined 2.32 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 0–112.7%
- 1–010.1%
- 0–09.9%
- 1–28.4%
Recent form
Botafogo SP U20
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Palmeiras U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Palmeiras U20 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Osasco Audax U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Osasco Audax U20 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs EC São Bernardo U20 · 1-1 (D)
Palmeiras U20
- 2026-10-22T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo U20 · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo SP U20 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo U20 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo SP U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos U20 · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paulista - U20 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.