Estádio Santa Cruz · Referee Kleber Ariel Goncalves Silva, Brazil · Analysis updated 10:51 UTC
Botafogo SP vs America Mineiro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Botafogo SP and 1.03 for America Mineiro, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Botafogo SP the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Botafogo SP win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Botafogo SP home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
America Mineiro away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–011.4%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.4%
- 0–17.1%
Recent form
Botafogo SP
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Club · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Goias · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Novorizontino · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-03T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Nautico Recife · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Cuiaba · 1-2 (L)
America Mineiro
- 2026-10-17T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Operario-PR · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Criciuma · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-07T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Fortaleza EC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Goianiense · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-28T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventude · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T21:30:00.000Z · Botafogo SP 2-1 America Mineiro (Serie B)
- 2026-04-01T21:00:00.000Z · Botafogo SP 2-1 America Mineiro (Serie B)
- 2025-08-02T21:30:00.000Z · Botafogo SP 2-1 America Mineiro (Serie B)
- 2025-04-05T21:30:00.000Z · Botafogo SP 0-1 America Mineiro (Serie B)
- 2024-08-10T00:30:00.000Z · Botafogo SP 1-3 America Mineiro (Serie B)
- 2024-04-19T22:00:00.000Z · Botafogo SP 1-1 America Mineiro (Serie B)
- 2021-01-16T00:30:00.000Z · Botafogo SP 1-1 America Mineiro (Serie B)
- 2020-10-16T22:15:00.000Z · Botafogo SP 1-2 America Mineiro (Serie B)
- 2019-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · Botafogo SP 0-0 America Mineiro (Serie B)
- 2019-05-01T00:30:00.000Z · Botafogo SP 1-0 America Mineiro (Serie B)
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 35 | 18 | 10 | 7 | 32 | 64 |
| 2 | Vila Nova | 35 | 18 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 62 |
| 3 | Juventude | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 61 |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 35 | 16 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 61 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 35 | 17 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 59 |
| 6 | CRB | 35 | 16 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 55 |
| 7 | Sport Recife | 35 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 54 |
| 8 | Atletico Goianiense | 35 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 54 |
| 9 | Operario-PR | 35 | 14 | 9 | 12 | -1 | 51 |
| 10 | Goias | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 49 |
| 11 | São Bernardo | 35 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 49 |
| 12 | Botafogo SP | 35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 2 | 47 |
| 13 | Cuiaba | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 47 |
| 14 | Athletic Club | 35 | 10 | 14 | 11 | 0 | 44 |
| 15 | Nautico Recife | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 43 |
| 16 | Ceara | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | -5 | 43 |
| 17 | Avai | 35 | 10 | 7 | 18 | -12 | 37 |
| 18 | Londrina | 35 | 8 | 8 | 19 | -7 | 32 |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 34 | 5 | 5 | 24 | -32 | 20 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 35 | 3 | 6 | 26 | -55 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Botafogo SP win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.