Estádio Santa Cruz · Referee Pierry Dias dos Santos, Brazil · Analysis updated 15:30 UTC
Botafogo SP vs Cuiaba Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.19 expected goals for Botafogo SP and 0.86 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Botafogo SP the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.4% probability
Expected goals
1.19 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Botafogo SP home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cuiaba away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.3%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–012.9%
- 0–111.1%
- 2–09.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | No | 1.60 | 57.3% | 59.9% | 1.67 | +2.6 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.14 | 82.8% | 84.8% | 1.18 | +2.0 |
| Match result | Away | 3.70 | 25.3% | 26.6% | 3.76 | +1.3 |
| Match result | Home | 2.20 | 42.5% | 43.6% | 2.29 | +1.1 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.44 | 65.2% | 66.3% | 1.51 | +1.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 69.7% | 70.2% | 1.42 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.65 | 56.2% | 56.4% | 1.77 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 74.1% | 73.4% | 1.36 | -0.7 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.70 | 34.8% | 33.7% | 2.97 | -1.1 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 5.50 | 17.2% | 15.2% | 6.58 | -2.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.90 | 32.2% | 29.8% | 3.36 | -2.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.15 | 42.7% | 40.1% | 2.49 | -2.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Botafogo SP
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Club · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Goias · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Novorizontino · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-03T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Nautico Recife · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Cuiaba · 1-2 (L)
Cuiaba
- 2026-10-11T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Avai · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-07T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Vila Nova · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Ponte Preta · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs CRB · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-22T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Nautico Recife · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-23T00:30:00.000Z · Botafogo SP 1-1 Cuiaba (Serie B)
- 2025-10-19T21:30:00.000Z · Botafogo SP 2-2 Cuiaba (Serie B)
- 2025-07-01T00:00:00.000Z · Botafogo SP 1-0 Cuiaba (Serie B)
- 2020-12-06T01:00:00.000Z · Botafogo SP 0-2 Cuiaba (Serie B)
- 2020-09-01T20:00:00.000Z · Botafogo SP 1-1 Cuiaba (Serie B)
- 2019-11-23T20:00:00.000Z · Botafogo SP 0-0 Cuiaba (Serie B)
- 2019-08-24T00:30:00.000Z · Botafogo SP 0-2 Cuiaba (Serie B)
- 2018-09-08T20:00:00.000Z · Botafogo SP 0-3 Cuiaba (Serie C)
- 2018-09-02T22:00:00.000Z · Botafogo SP 0-0 Cuiaba (Serie C)
- 2018-06-30T19:30:00.000Z · Botafogo SP 1-2 Cuiaba (Serie C)
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 62 |
| 2 | Novorizontino | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 31 | 61 |
| 3 | Juventude | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 61 |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 34 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 60 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 59 |
| 6 | Atletico Goianiense | 34 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 54 |
| 7 | CRB | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 52 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 51 |
| 9 | Goias | 33 | 14 | 6 | 13 | -6 | 48 |
| 10 | Operario-PR | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | -2 | 48 |
| 11 | Cuiaba | 33 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 47 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 46 |
| 13 | Botafogo SP | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 0 | 44 |
| 14 | Athletic Club | 34 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 1 | 44 |
| 15 | Ceara | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | -5 | 43 |
| 16 | Nautico Recife | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | -3 | 42 |
| 17 | Avai | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 37 |
| 18 | Londrina | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | -7 | 29 |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 34 | 5 | 5 | 24 | -32 | 20 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 34 | 3 | 5 | 26 | -55 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.