· Analysis updated 09:12 UTC
Botev Ihtiman vs Septemvri Sofia II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Botev Ihtiman and 1.18 for Septemvri Sofia II, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives Botev Ihtiman the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.0% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Botev Ihtiman home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Septemvri Sofia II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.7%
- 2–07.5%
Recent form
Botev Ihtiman
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bansko · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Plovdiv · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Minyor Pernik · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Pirin Razlog · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Natsional Sofia · 3-2 (W)
Septemvri Sofia II
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pirin Razlog · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Natsional Sofia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chavdar Etropole · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Balkan Botevgrad · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kostinbrod · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-02T15:00:00.000Z · Botev Ihtiman 1-2 Septemvri Sofia II (Third League - Southwest)
- 2025-11-29T12:00:00.000Z · Botev Ihtiman 3-0 Septemvri Sofia II (Third League - Southwest)
- 2025-08-09T15:00:00.000Z · Botev Ihtiman 1-4 Septemvri Sofia II (Third League - Southwest)
- 2025-03-01T13:00:00.000Z · Botev Ihtiman 1-0 Septemvri Sofia II (Third League - Southwest)
- 2024-08-10T15:00:00.000Z · Botev Ihtiman 0-1 Septemvri Sofia II (Third League - Southwest)
- 2024-03-15T13:00:00.000Z · Botev Ihtiman 1-0 Septemvri Sofia II (Third League - Southwest)
- 2023-09-02T14:00:00.000Z · Botev Ihtiman 1-3 Septemvri Sofia II (Third League - Southwest)
- 2022-10-30T12:00:00.000Z · Botev Ihtiman 0-3 Septemvri Sofia II (Third League - Southwest)
- 2022-08-13T15:00:00.000Z · Botev Ihtiman 2-1 Septemvri Sofia II (Third League - Southwest)
- 2022-03-12T13:00:00.000Z · Botev Ihtiman 0-3 Septemvri Sofia II (Third League - Southwest)
Third League - Southwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Minyor Pernik | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 30 |
| 2 | Oborishte | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 25 |
| 3 | Bansko | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 25 |
| 4 | Kostinbrod | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 21 |
| 5 | Strumska Slava | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 20 |
| 6 | Septemvri Sofia II | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 19 |
| 7 | Balkan Botevgrad | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 19 |
| 8 | Slivnishki geroy | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 9 | Slavia Sofia II | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 16 |
| 10 | CSKA Sofia III | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 11 | Botev Ihtiman | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 16 |
| 12 | Septemvri Simitli | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 13 | Chavdar Etropole | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 14 |
| 14 | Levski Sofia II | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 | Belasitsa | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 12 |
| 16 | Natsional Sofia | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 10 |
| 17 | Kyustendil | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 18 | Pirin Razlog | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | -22 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.