Botev Novi Pazar vs Aksakovo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.61 expected goals for Botev Novi Pazar and 1.42 for Aksakovo, a combined total of 4.03. That distribution gives Botev Novi Pazar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Botev Novi Pazar win

63.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.61 – 1.42

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Botev Novi Pazar home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aksakovo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Botev Novi Pazar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 18% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.61 goals for Botev Novi Pazar and 1.42 for Aksakovo, a combined 4.03 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Botev Novi Pazar win63%

Draw18%

Aksakovo win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

37%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals77%

Over 3.5 goals57%

Both teams to score70%

Correct score

2–18.6%
3–17.5%
1–16.6%
2–26.1%
2–06.1%

Recent form

Botev Novi Pazar

2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vihren · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Cherno more II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chernomorets Balchik · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chernolomets 1919 · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ludogorets III · 0-0 (D)

Aksakovo

2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Svetkavitsa 14 · 6-0 (W)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Olympic Varna · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Cherno more II · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chernomorets Balchik · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Chernolomets 1919 · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-03-21T13:00:00.000Z · Botev Novi Pazar 1-2 Aksakovo (Third League - Northeast)
2025-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · Botev Novi Pazar 2-1 Aksakovo (Third League - Northeast)
2025-05-03T14:00:00.000Z · Botev Novi Pazar 1-4 Aksakovo (Third League - Northeast)
2025-02-09T12:00:00.000Z · Botev Novi Pazar 0-2 Aksakovo (Third League - Northeast)

Third League - Northeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ludogorets III	11	9	1	1	23	28
2	Volov Shumen	11	7	2	2	19	23
3	Chernomorets Balchik	10	7	2	1	10	23
4	Chernolomets 1919	11	6	3	2	15	21
5	Svetkavitsa 14	11	6	1	4	5	19
6	Botev Novi Pazar	9	4	3	2	5	15
7	Septemvri Tervel	9	4	3	2	3	15
8	Cherno more II	10	4	2	4	5	14
9	Benkovski Isperih	9	4	2	3	3	14
10	Septemvri Dragoevo	11	4	2	5	-5	14
11	Olympic Varna	10	4	0	6	-6	12
12	Devnya 2005	10	3	1	6	-10	10
13	Riltzi	10	3	1	6	-12	10
14	Aksakovo	8	2	2	4	-5	8
15	Ustrem Donchevo	10	2	1	7	-11	7
16	Fratria II	10	2	1	7	-20	7
17	Dorostol	10	0	1	9	-19	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Botev Novi Pazar win, at 63.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.