· Analysis updated 00:05 UTC
Botev Novi Pazar vs Chernomorets Balchik Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.19 expected goals for Botev Novi Pazar and 1.28 for Chernomorets Balchik, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives Chernomorets Balchik the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.8% probability
Expected goals
1.19 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Botev Novi Pazar home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chernomorets Balchik away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 0–110.8%
- 1–010.1%
- 0–08.4%
- 1–28.2%
Recent form
Botev Novi Pazar
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vihren · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Cherno more II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chernomorets Balchik · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chernolomets 1919 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ludogorets III · 0-0 (D)
Chernomorets Balchik
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Benkovski Isperih · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Volov Shumen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Svetkavitsa 14 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Botev Novi Pazar · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · Botev Novi Pazar 0-0 Chernomorets Balchik (Third League - Northeast)
- 2026-05-23T14:00:00.000Z · Botev Novi Pazar 0-4 Chernomorets Balchik (Third League - Northeast)
- 2025-11-29T12:00:00.000Z · Botev Novi Pazar 0-4 Chernomorets Balchik (Third League - Northeast)
- 2025-04-27T13:00:00.000Z · Botev Novi Pazar 0-3 Chernomorets Balchik (Third League - Northeast)
- 2024-10-20T13:00:00.000Z · Botev Novi Pazar 0-2 Chernomorets Balchik (Third League - Northeast)
- 2023-03-05T13:00:00.000Z · Botev Novi Pazar 0-3 Chernomorets Balchik (Third League - Northeast)
- 2022-08-27T15:00:00.000Z · Botev Novi Pazar 1-6 Chernomorets Balchik (Third League - Northeast)
- 2022-05-07T14:00:00.000Z · Botev Novi Pazar 0-3 Chernomorets Balchik (Third League - Northeast)
- 2021-10-23T12:00:00.000Z · Botev Novi Pazar 0-1 Chernomorets Balchik (Third League - Northeast)
- 2021-03-13T13:00:00.000Z · Botev Novi Pazar 1-2 Chernomorets Balchik (Third League - Northeast)
Third League - Northeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ludogorets III | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 28 |
| 2 | Volov Shumen | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 23 |
| 3 | Chernomorets Balchik | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Chernolomets 1919 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 21 |
| 5 | Svetkavitsa 14 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 19 |
| 6 | Botev Novi Pazar | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | Septemvri Tervel | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Cherno more II | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 |
| 9 | Benkovski Isperih | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Septemvri Dragoevo | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 | Olympic Varna | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 12 |
| 12 | Devnya 2005 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 13 | Riltzi | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 10 |
| 14 | Aksakovo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Ustrem Donchevo | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 7 |
| 16 | Fratria II | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 7 |
| 17 | Dorostol | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -19 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.