· Analysis updated 14:16 UTC
Botev Novi Pazar vs Volov Shumen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Botev Novi Pazar and 1.83 for Volov Shumen, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Volov Shumen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Volov Shumen win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Botev Novi Pazar home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Volov Shumen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–19.1%
- 0–28.3%
- 2–16.3%
Recent form
Botev Novi Pazar
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vihren · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Cherno more II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chernomorets Balchik · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chernolomets 1919 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ludogorets III · 0-0 (D)
Volov Shumen
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Ludogorets III · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Septemvri Dragoevo · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ustrem Donchevo · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fratria II · 9-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-28T13:00:00.000Z · Botev Novi Pazar 0-3 Volov Shumen (Third League - Northeast)
- 2025-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · Botev Novi Pazar 0-3 Volov Shumen (Third League - Northeast)
- 2023-05-21T14:00:00.000Z · Botev Novi Pazar 2-3 Volov Shumen (Third League - Northeast)
- 2022-11-13T12:00:00.000Z · Botev Novi Pazar 1-2 Volov Shumen (Third League - Northeast)
- 2022-04-09T13:00:00.000Z · Botev Novi Pazar 2-2 Volov Shumen (Third League - Northeast)
- 2021-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · Botev Novi Pazar 1-1 Volov Shumen (Third League - Northeast)
- 2019-03-16T13:00:00.000Z · Botev Novi Pazar 1-0 Volov Shumen (Third League - Northeast)
- 2018-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · Botev Novi Pazar 1-0 Volov Shumen (Third League - Northeast)
Third League - Northeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ludogorets III | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 2 | Chernolomets 1919 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 17 |
| 3 | Chernomorets Balchik | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 4 | Volov Shumen | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 16 |
| 5 | Svetkavitsa 14 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Benkovski Isperih | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Cherno more II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Septemvri Tervel | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 9 | Devnya 2005 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 | Riltzi | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 10 |
| 11 | Botev Novi Pazar | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 12 | Olympic Varna | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 13 | Septemvri Dragoevo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 | Aksakovo | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Fratria II | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -16 | 7 |
| 16 | Ustrem Donchevo | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | Dorostol | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Volov Shumen win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.