Stadion Hristo Botev · Analysis updated 14:26 UTC
Botev Plovdiv vs Dunav Ruse Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.17 expected goals for Botev Plovdiv and 1.06 for Dunav Ruse, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Botev Plovdiv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Botev Plovdiv win
62.8% probability
Expected goals
2.17 – 1.06
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Botev Plovdiv home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dunav Ruse away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Botev Plovdiv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 20% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.17 goals for Botev Plovdiv and 1.06 for Dunav Ruse, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.3%
- 1–19.1%
- 1–08.6%
- 3–17.1%
Recent form
Botev Plovdiv
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Sofia · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Arda Kardzhali · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Sofia · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Botev Vratsa · 0-1 (L)
Dunav Ruse
- 2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Cherno More Varna · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Botev Vratsa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA 1948 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Slavia Sofia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Sofia · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 25 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 24 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 23 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 22 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 9 |
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 7 |
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Botev Plovdiv win, at 62.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.