Stadion Hristo Botev · Referee Mihael Pavlov, Bulgaria · Analysis updated 15:38 UTC
Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Botev Plovdiv and 1.06 for Spartak Varna, a combined total of 2.89. That distribution gives Botev Plovdiv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Botev Plovdiv win
55.6% probability
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.06
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Botev Plovdiv home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Spartak Varna away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Botev Plovdiv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 23% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Botev Plovdiv and 1.06 for Spartak Varna, a combined 2.89 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.3%
- 3–16.0%
Recent form
Botev Plovdiv
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Sofia · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Arda Kardzhali · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Sofia · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Botev Vratsa · 0-1 (L)
Spartak Varna
- 2026-09-20T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Sofia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Sofia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Sofia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ludogorets · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Levski Sofia · 0-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 25 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 24 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 23 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 22 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 9 |
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 7 |
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Botev Plovdiv win, at 55.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.