Hristo Botev Stadium · Analysis updated 16:02 UTC
Botev Vratsa vs CSKA 1948 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Botev Vratsa and 1.20 for CSKA 1948, a combined total of 2.13. That distribution gives CSKA 1948 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.7% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Botev Vratsa home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
CSKA 1948 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.3%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–011.9%
- 1–011.0%
- 0–28.6%
Recent form
Botev Vratsa
- 2026-10-03T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Sofia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunav Ruse · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Levski Sofia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Sofia · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-31T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Arda Kardzhali · 0-2 (L)
CSKA 1948
- 2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Neftochimic Burgas · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Sofia · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Sofia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunav Ruse · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Levski Sofia · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · Botev Vratsa 1-2 CSKA 1948 (First League)
- 2026-04-10T12:30:00.000Z · Botev Vratsa 0-1 CSKA 1948 (First League)
- 2025-11-03T16:15:00.000Z · Botev Vratsa 0-0 CSKA 1948 (First League)
- 2025-04-28T17:00:00.000Z · Botev Vratsa 1-0 CSKA 1948 (First League)
- 2025-02-21T10:45:00.000Z · Botev Vratsa 0-1 CSKA 1948 (First League)
- 2024-08-30T16:15:00.000Z · Botev Vratsa 0-3 CSKA 1948 (First League)
- 2024-04-04T11:30:00.000Z · Botev Vratsa 0-0 CSKA 1948 (First League)
- 2023-09-30T14:30:00.000Z · Botev Vratsa 1-2 CSKA 1948 (First League)
- 2023-02-19T10:45:00.000Z · Botev Vratsa 1-0 CSKA 1948 (First League)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 28 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 27 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 26 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 22 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 19 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 17 |
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 13 |
| 8 | Slavia Sofia | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 9 |
| 10 | Dunav Ruse | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 8 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Cherno More Varna | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.