Botev Vratsa vs Levski Krumovgrad Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for Botev Vratsa and 1.99 for Levski Krumovgrad, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Levski Krumovgrad the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Levski Krumovgrad win

58.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.06 – 1.99

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Botev Vratsa home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Levski Krumovgrad away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Levski Krumovgrad to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 20% / 22% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.06 goals for Botev Vratsa and 1.99 for Levski Krumovgrad, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Botev Vratsa win20%

Draw22%

Levski Krumovgrad win59%

Double chance 1X

41%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

80%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–110.0%
1–29.9%
0–19.4%
0–29.3%
1–36.6%

Recent form

Botev Vratsa

2026-10-03T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Sofia · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunav Ruse · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Levski Sofia · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Sofia · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-31T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Arda Kardzhali · 0-2 (L)

Levski Krumovgrad

2026-10-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II · 6-0 (W)
2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zagorets · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sozopol · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Pleven · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gigant Saedinenie · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

First League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Levski Sofia	10	9	1	0	19	28
2	CSKA Sofia	11	8	3	0	18	27
3	Ludogorets	10	8	2	0	14	26
4	CSKA 1948	12	8	1	3	12	25
5	Botev Plovdiv	12	6	1	5	-1	19
6	Arda Kardzhali	11	5	2	4	-2	17
7	Spartak Varna	12	3	4	5	-6	13
8	Slavia Sofia	11	2	5	4	0	11
9	Dunav Ruse	12	3	2	7	-6	11
10	Botev Vratsa	12	2	4	6	-11	10
11	Lokomotiv Sofia	12	1	6	5	-7	9
12	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	11	2	2	7	-8	8
13	Septemvri Sofia	11	2	2	7	-11	8
14	Cherno More Varna	11	1	3	7	-11	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Levski Krumovgrad win, at 58.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.