Bouchamma vs Ksour Essef Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Bouchamma and 1.20 for Ksour Essef, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Ksour Essef the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.15 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bouchamma home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ksour Essef to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 35% / 28% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Bouchamma and 1.20 for Ksour Essef, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 42% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Match result (1X2)

Bouchamma win35%

Draw28%

Ksour Essef win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–113.2%
0–111.4%
1–011.0%
0–09.5%
1–27.9%

Recent form

Bouchamma

2026-05-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Korba · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs EO Sidi Bouzid · 2-0 (W)
2026-04-28T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Ariana · 5-0 (W)
2026-04-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jendouba Sport · 1-2 (L)
2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ksour Essef · 4-1 (W)

Ksour Essef

Head-to-head

2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · Bouchamma 4-1 Ksour Essef (Ligue 2)
2025-11-16T13:30:00.000Z · Bouchamma 1-3 Ksour Essef (Ligue 2)

Ligue 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	AS Kasserine	4	4	0	0	6	12
2	Mégrine	4	3	1	0	4	10
3	Korba	4	3	0	1	4	9
4	EM Mahdia	4	2	2	0	2	8
5	M'saken	4	2	2	0	2	8
6	Ksour Essef	4	2	2	0	2	8
7	CS Chebba	4	2	1	1	1	7
8	Jendouba Sport	4	2	1	1	1	7
9	US Tataouine	4	2	1	1	-1	7
10	Bouchamma	4	2	1	1	-1	7
11	Redeyef	4	2	0	2	4	6
12	Kalaâ Sport	4	2	0	2	1	6
13	Sfax Railways	4	1	3	0	1	6
14	JS Kairouanaise	4	2	0	2	0	6
15	AS Soliman	4	1	2	1	2	5
16	Sporting Ben Arous	4	1	2	1	2	5
17	Ariana	4	1	2	1	1	5
18	Stade Gabesien	4	1	2	1	0	5
19	BS Bouhajla	4	1	2	1	-2	5
20	Stade Soussien	4	1	1	2	0	4
21	Olympique du Kef	4	1	1	2	-1	4
22	EGS Gafsa	4	1	0	3	-2	3
23	AS Agareb	4	0	3	1	-3	3
24	Béni-Khalled	4	0	2	2	-2	2
25	AS Gabes	4	0	1	3	-3	1
26	Kerkennah	4	0	1	3	-3	1
27	Moknine	4	0	1	3	-7	1
28	CO Medenine	4	0	0	4	-8	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.