Bouenguidi vs Cercle Mbéri Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.65 expected goals for Bouenguidi and 1.60 for Cercle Mbéri, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Cercle Mbéri the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Cercle Mbéri win

60.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.65 – 1.60

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bouenguidi home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cercle Mbéri away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Bouenguidi win15%

Draw25%

Cercle Mbéri win60%

Double chance 1X

40%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

85%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score38%

Correct score

0–116.9%
0–213.5%
1–111.0%
0–010.5%
1–28.8%

Recent form

Bouenguidi

2026-07-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pélican · 0-1 (L)
2026-06-30T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Bitam · 0-1 (L)
2026-06-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Cercle Mbéri · 1-0 (W)
2026-06-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Oyem AC · 0-2 (L)
2026-06-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FC 105 · 0-2 (L)

Cercle Mbéri

2026-07-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lozo · 0-0 (D)
2026-06-30T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Ogooue FC · 1-0 (W)
2026-06-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bouenguidi · 0-1 (L)
2026-06-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Pélican · 2-0 (W)
2026-06-14T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Bitam · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-06-27T15:00:00.000Z · Bouenguidi 1-0 Cercle Mbéri (Championnat D1)
2026-05-02T14:30:00.000Z · Bouenguidi 1-2 Cercle Mbéri (Championnat D1)
2025-05-10T14:30:00.000Z · Bouenguidi 0-1 Cercle Mbéri (Championnat D1)
2025-01-18T00:00:00.000Z · Bouenguidi 0-0 Cercle Mbéri (Championnat D1)
2023-03-08T00:00:00.000Z · Bouenguidi 0-2 Cercle Mbéri (Championnat D1)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Cercle Mbéri win, at 60.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.