· Analysis updated 04:59 UTC
Boulogne vs Annecy Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Boulogne and 0.86 for Annecy, a combined total of 1.80. That distribution gives Boulogne the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.7% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Boulogne home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Annecy away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Boulogne to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 33% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Boulogne and 0.86 for Annecy, a combined 1.80 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–016.5%
- 1–015.6%
- 0–114.1%
- 1–113.4%
- 2–07.3%
Recent form
Boulogne
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Le Havre · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nantes · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Clermont Foot · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dijon · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Montpellier · 0-0 (D)
Annecy
- 2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Nancy · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunkerque · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Servette FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dijon · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Guingamp · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Etienne | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 2 | Nancy | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 3 | Montpellier | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 4 | Reims | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | PAU | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | RED Star FC 93 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 7 | Annecy | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 8 | Metz | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Dijon | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Dunkerque | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Guingamp | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Sochaux | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 13 | Rodez | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 10 |
| 14 | Boulogne | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 15 | Nantes | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | Grenoble | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 | Clermont Foot | 10 | 0 | 7 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 18 | Laval | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.