· Analysis updated 14:36 UTC
Boulogne vs Rouen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for Boulogne and 1.41 for Rouen, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Rouen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rouen win
48.3% probability
Expected goals
0.92 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Boulogne home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rouen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rouen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 25% / 27% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.92 goals for Boulogne and 1.41 for Rouen, a combined 2.33 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.7%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–09.7%
- 0–29.6%
- 1–08.9%
Recent form
Boulogne
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Le Havre · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nantes · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Clermont Foot · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dijon · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Montpellier · 0-0 (D)
Rouen
- 2026-09-24T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Caen · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Aubagne · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Thionville Lusitanos · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-03T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Valenciennes · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Villefranche · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rouen win, at 48.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.