Stade Marcel-Verchere · Analysis updated 09:18 UTC
Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Amiens Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.46 expected goals for Bourg-en-bresse 01 and 1.42 for Amiens, a combined total of 1.88. That distribution gives Amiens the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Amiens win
61.3% probability
Expected goals
0.46 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bourg-en-bresse 01 home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Amiens away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
39%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–121.7%
- 0–215.4%
- 0–015.3%
- 1–19.9%
- 0–37.3%
Recent form
Bourg-en-bresse 01
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Rouen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Concarneau · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Gobelins · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Bastia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Caen · 0-2 (L)
Amiens
- 2026-10-17T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Valenciennes · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Villefranche · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Quevilly · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Orleans · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cannes · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2017-03-10T19:00:00.000Z · Bourg-en-bresse 01 1-2 Amiens (Ligue 2)
- 2016-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · Bourg-en-bresse 01 2-4 Amiens (Ligue 2)
- 2015-04-17T18:00:00.000Z · Bourg-en-bresse 01 1-0 Amiens (Ligue 3)
- 2014-11-21T19:00:00.000Z · Bourg-en-bresse 01 2-0 Amiens (Ligue 3)
- 2014-01-31T19:00:00.000Z · Bourg-en-bresse 01 1-0 Amiens (Ligue 3)
- 2013-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · Bourg-en-bresse 01 1-1 Amiens (Ligue 3)
- 2013-05-17T18:00:00.000Z · Bourg-en-bresse 01 0-0 Amiens (Ligue 3)
- 2013-01-11T18:30:00.000Z · Bourg-en-bresse 01 0-2 Amiens (Ligue 3)
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Roche VF | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 21 |
| 2 | Rouen | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Versailles | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 19 |
| 4 | Caen | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 18 |
| 5 | Concarneau | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Le Puy Foot | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Amiens | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 16 |
| 8 | Cannes | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 9 | Fleury 91 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 10 | Gobelins | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Quevilly | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 | Thionville Lusitanos | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 | Bastia | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 14 | Valenciennes | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Orleans | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 | Aubagne | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -7 | 7 |
| 17 | Villefranche | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
| 18 | Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Amiens win, at 61.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.