· Analysis updated 12:54 UTC
Bourges Foot 18 vs Chasselay MDA Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Bourges Foot 18 and 0.75 for Chasselay MDA, a combined total of 1.50. That distribution gives Bourges Foot 18 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 32%, with the draw at 37%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 19% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 32% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.3% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bourges Foot 18 home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Chasselay MDA away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 32% / 37% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Bourges Foot 18 and 0.75 for Chasselay MDA, a combined 1.50 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
63%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–022.3%
- 0–116.7%
- 1–016.7%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–26.3%
Recent form
Bourges Foot 18
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyon Duchere · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fréjus St-Raphaël · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Canet Roussillon · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Chasselay MDA · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Toulon · 0-0 (D)
Chasselay MDA
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Troyes II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyon Duchere · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Fréjus St-Raphaël · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Canet Roussillon · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bourges Foot 18 · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · Bourges Foot 18 0-0 Chasselay MDA (National 2 - Group C)
- 2023-03-18T16:00:00.000Z · Bourges Foot 18 1-0 Chasselay MDA (National 2 - Group D)
- 2022-12-14T16:00:00.000Z · Bourges Foot 18 0-2 Chasselay MDA (National 2 - Group D)
National 2 - Group C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nimes | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Hyères | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Toulon | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | UF Touraine | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Rumilly Vallières | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 12 |
| 6 | Fréjus St-Raphaël | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Hauts Lyonnais | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | Troyes II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 9 | Chasselay MDA | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Andrézieux | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Saint-Priest | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 12 | Limonest | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Lyon Duchere | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 14 | Istres | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Bourges Foot 18 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Chateauroux | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 17 | Canet Roussillon | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 19%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.