Vitality Stadium · Referee Jarred Gillett, Australia · Analysis updated 13:15 UTC
Bournemouth vs Brentford Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.35 for Brentford, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Brentford the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
72.3% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bournemouth home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Brentford away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.9%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–09.5%
- 0–28.7%
Recent form
Bournemouth
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sturm Graz · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelsea · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Liverpool · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 2-1 (W)
Brentford
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Liverpool · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelsea · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Reading · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bournemouth · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 2-2 Brentford (Premier League)
- 2026-03-03T19:30:00.000Z · Bournemouth 0-0 Brentford (Premier League)
- 2025-12-27T15:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 1-4 Brentford (Premier League)
- 2025-08-26T18:45:00.000Z · Bournemouth 0-2 Brentford (League Cup)
- 2025-03-15T17:30:00.000Z · Bournemouth 1-2 Brentford (Premier League)
- 2024-11-09T15:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 2-3 Brentford (Premier League)
- 2024-05-11T14:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 1-2 Brentford (Premier League)
- 2023-09-02T14:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 2-2 Brentford (Premier League)
- 2023-01-14T17:30:00.000Z · Bournemouth 0-2 Brentford (Premier League)
- 2022-10-01T14:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 0-0 Brentford (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 21 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 3 | Brighton | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 16 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Brentford | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Everton | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Hull City | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Aston Villa | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | Crystal Palace | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 7 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Tottenham | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 17 | Coventry | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 | Fulham | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 5 |
| 19 | Nottingham Forest | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 72.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.