Vitality Stadium · Referee E. Bell · Analysis updated 20:40 UTC
Bournemouth vs Lincoln Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.14 for Lincoln, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Bournemouth the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bournemouth win
47.4% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bournemouth home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lincoln away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bournemouth to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 25% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Bournemouth and 1.14 for Lincoln, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.2%
- 0–17.5%
Recent form
Bournemouth
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelsea · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Liverpool · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentford · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lincoln · 4-0 (W)
Lincoln
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheffield Utd · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Swansea · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bristol City · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Preston · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bournemouth · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bournemouth win, at 47.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.