Vitality Stadium · Referee Michael Oliver, England · Analysis updated 14:18 UTC
Bournemouth vs Liverpool Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.70 for Liverpool, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Liverpool the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Liverpool win
48.0% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bournemouth home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Liverpool to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 28% / 24% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Bournemouth and 1.70 for Liverpool, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–18.9%
- 0–27.6%
- 2–17.0%
Recent form
Bournemouth
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelsea · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Liverpool · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentford · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lincoln · 4-0 (W)
Liverpool
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bournemouth · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fulham · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 0-1 Liverpool (Premier League)
- 2026-01-24T17:30:00.000Z · Bournemouth 3-2 Liverpool (Premier League)
- 2025-08-15T19:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 2-4 Liverpool (Premier League)
- 2025-02-01T15:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 0-2 Liverpool (Premier League)
- 2024-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 0-3 Liverpool (Premier League)
- 2024-01-21T16:30:00.000Z · Bournemouth 0-4 Liverpool (Premier League)
- 2023-11-01T19:45:00.000Z · Bournemouth 1-2 Liverpool (League Cup)
- 2023-08-19T14:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 1-3 Liverpool (Premier League)
- 2023-03-11T12:30:00.000Z · Bournemouth 1-0 Liverpool (Premier League)
- 2022-08-27T14:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 0-9 Liverpool (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Liverpool win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.