Vitality Stadium · Analysis updated 21:46 UTC
Bournemouth vs Manchester United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.72 for Manchester United, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Manchester United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.8% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bournemouth home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Manchester United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 33% / 23% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Bournemouth and 1.72 for Manchester United, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 1–28.9%
- 2–17.7%
- 0–17.0%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Bournemouth
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelsea · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Liverpool · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentford · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lincoln · 4-0 (W)
Manchester United
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Fulham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Brighton · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sabah FA · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-20T20:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 2-2 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2025-12-15T20:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 4-4 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2025-07-31T01:30:00.000Z · Bournemouth 1-4 Manchester United (Premier League - Summer Series)
- 2025-04-27T13:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 1-1 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2024-12-22T14:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 3-0 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2024-04-13T16:30:00.000Z · Bournemouth 2-2 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2023-12-09T15:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 3-0 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2023-05-20T14:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 0-1 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2023-01-03T20:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 0-3 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2020-07-04T14:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 2-5 Manchester United (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.