Vitality Stadium · Analysis updated 14:19 UTC
Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.43 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Nottingham Forest the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.9% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bournemouth home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Nottingham Forest away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–08.7%
- 0–27.5%
Recent form
Bournemouth
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelsea · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Liverpool · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentford · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lincoln · 4-0 (W)
Nottingham Forest
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Coventry · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 1-1 Nottingham Forest (Premier League)
- 2025-10-26T14:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 2-0 Nottingham Forest (Premier League)
- 2025-01-25T15:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 5-0 Nottingham Forest (Premier League)
- 2024-08-17T14:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 1-1 Nottingham Forest (Premier League)
- 2024-02-04T14:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 1-1 Nottingham Forest (Premier League)
- 2023-12-23T15:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 3-2 Nottingham Forest (Premier League)
- 2023-01-21T15:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 1-1 Nottingham Forest (Premier League)
- 2022-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 3-2 Nottingham Forest (Premier League)
- 2022-05-03T18:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 1-0 Nottingham Forest (Championship)
- 2021-08-14T14:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 2-1 Nottingham Forest (Championship)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.