Bournemouth vs Sunderland Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.45 for Sunderland, a combined total of 3.54. That distribution gives Bournemouth the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Bournemouth win

52.4% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

2.09 – 1.45

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Bournemouth win52%

Draw21%

Sunderland win27%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

2–19.2%
1–18.8%
2–26.7%
3–16.4%
1–26.4%

Why the model likes this

Bournemouth home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sunderland away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bournemouth to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 21% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.09 goals for Bournemouth and 1.45 for Sunderland, a combined 3.54 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Bournemouth

2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FSV Mainz 05 · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-08T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Betis · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Genoa · 10-1 (W)
2026-07-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Augsburg · 5-2 (W)
2026-07-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC St. Pauli · 4-1 (W)

Sunderland

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-08T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wrexham · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-30T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-25T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 2-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Aston Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Chelsea	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Everton	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fulham	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Liverpool	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Manchester City	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Manchester United	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Newcastle	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Sunderland	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Tottenham	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Coventry	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Crystal Palace	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Hull City	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Ipswich	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Bournemouth	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Leeds	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Nottingham Forest	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Brentford	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.