Vitality Stadium · Analysis updated 19:49 UTC
Bournemouth vs Sunderland Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.57 expected goals for Bournemouth and 0.88 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Bournemouth the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Bournemouth win
53.6% probability
Expected goals
1.57 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bournemouth home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sunderland away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.5%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–010.6%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 53.7% vs market 45.9%, edge +7.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 45.9% | 53.7% | 1.86 | +7.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.20 | 78.1% | 79.0% | 1.27 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Home | 1.75 | 53.3% | 53.6% | 1.87 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.70 | 25.2% | 25.4% | 3.94 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.0% | 74.7% | 1.34 | -0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 4.33 | 21.5% | 21.1% | 4.74 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.00 | 46.9% | 46.5% | 2.15 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 54.1% | 46.3% | 2.16 | -7.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Bournemouth
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelsea · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Liverpool · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentford · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lincoln · 4-0 (W)
Sunderland
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brighton · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs AZ Alkmaar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hull City · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-28T12:30:00.000Z · Bournemouth 1-1 Sunderland (Premier League)
- 2025-11-29T15:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 2-3 Sunderland (Premier League)
- 2017-04-29T14:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 1-0 Sunderland (Premier League)
- 2016-11-05T15:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 1-2 Sunderland (Premier League)
- 2016-01-23T15:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 1-1 Sunderland (Premier League)
- 2015-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · Bournemouth 2-0 Sunderland (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bournemouth win, at 53.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.