Brøndby Stadion · Analysis updated 15:48 UTC
Brøndby W vs Sporting CP W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Brøndby W and 1.41 for Sporting CP W, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Brøndby W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.1% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Brøndby W home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sporting CP W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brøndby W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 25% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Brøndby W and 1.41 for Sporting CP W, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–08.3%
- 1–28.3%
- 0–18.2%
Recent form
Brøndby W
- 2026-08-29T13:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Copenhagen W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Subotica W · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Køge W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-16T09:30:00.000Z · A vs AGF W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Praha W · 1-1 (D)
Sporting CP W
- 2026-09-30T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Brøndby W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Braga W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Brøndby W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Marítimo W · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria Guimaraes W · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.