Tingbjerg Idraetspark · Analysis updated 04:57 UTC
Brønshøj vs ASA Aarhus Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.01 expected goals for Brønshøj and 1.01 for ASA Aarhus, a combined total of 3.02. That distribution gives Brønshøj the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Brønshøj win
60.5% probability
Expected goals
2.01 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Brønshøj home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
ASA Aarhus away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brønshøj to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 21% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.01 goals for Brønshøj and 1.01 for ASA Aarhus, a combined 3.02 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–110.0%
- 1–19.9%
- 2–09.8%
- 1–09.8%
- 3–16.7%
Recent form
Brønshøj
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vanløse · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs ASA Aarhus · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Ringsted · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Helsingor · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hørsholm-Usserød · 2-0 (W)
ASA Aarhus
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Helsingor · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Holbæk B&I · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hørsholm-Usserød · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Brønshøj · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Næsby · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holbæk B&I | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 29 |
| 2 | Brønshøj | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 25 |
| 3 | Vanløse | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 24 |
| 4 | FC Helsingor | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 21 |
| 5 | Hørsholm-Usserød | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 6 | Næsby | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 18 |
| 7 | Sundby | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 16 |
| 8 | ASA Aarhus | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 16 |
| 9 | Ishøj | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 15 |
| 10 | Frem | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Holstebro | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -16 | 13 |
| 12 | Ringsted | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -19 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Brønshøj win, at 60.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.