Tingbjerg Idraetspark · Analysis updated 13:49 UTC
Brønshøj vs Næsby Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Brønshøj and 1.45 for Næsby, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Brønshøj the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Brønshøj win
52.5% probability
Expected goals
2.10 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Brønshøj home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Næsby away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brønshøj to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 21% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for Brønshøj and 1.45 for Næsby, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 1–18.7%
- 2–26.7%
- 3–16.4%
- 1–26.3%
Recent form
Brønshøj
- 2026-10-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sundby · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ringsted · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Holstebro · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Frem · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vanløse · 1-1 (D)
Næsby
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanløse · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Frem · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Holstebro · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Ringsted · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Helsingor · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holbæk B&I | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 29 |
| 2 | Brønshøj | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 25 |
| 3 | Vanløse | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 24 |
| 4 | FC Helsingor | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 21 |
| 5 | Hørsholm-Usserød | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 6 | Næsby | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 18 |
| 7 | Sundby | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 16 |
| 8 | ASA Aarhus | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 16 |
| 9 | Ishøj | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 15 |
| 10 | Frem | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Holstebro | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -16 | 13 |
| 12 | Ringsted | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -19 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Brønshøj win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.