Stadio Attilio Bravi · Analysis updated 13:41 UTC
Bra vs Fezzanese Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for Bra and 1.07 for Fezzanese, a combined total of 2.07. That distribution gives Fezzanese the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.7% probability
Expected goals
1.01 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bra home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fezzanese away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.5%
- 0–113.4%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–012.6%
- 1–27.2%
Recent form
Bra
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Saluzzo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Celle Varazze · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanremese · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Borgosesia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Biellese · 0-1 (L)
Fezzanese
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Alessandria · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Valenzana · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Imperia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Gozzano · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sestri Levante · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · Bra 1-1 Fezzanese (Serie D - Girone A)
- 2024-01-21T13:30:00.000Z · Bra 4-0 Fezzanese (Serie D - Girone A)
- 2023-09-24T13:00:00.000Z · Bra 3-0 Fezzanese (Serie D - Girone A)
- 2023-05-07T13:00:00.000Z · Bra 5-0 Fezzanese (Serie D - Girone A)
- 2022-12-21T14:00:00.000Z · Bra 3-2 Fezzanese (Serie D - Girone A)
- 2019-12-01T13:30:00.000Z · Bra 2-0 Fezzanese (Serie D - Girone A)
Serie D - Girone A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandria | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Biellese | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | Derthona | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
| 4 | Ligorna | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Asti | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Gozzano | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Saluzzo | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Millesimo | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Chisola | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Imperia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Lascaris | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Sanremese | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 13 | Fezzanese | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | Sestri Levante | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Borgosesia | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Bra | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 17 | Valenzana | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 18 | Celle Varazze | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.