St James Park · Analysis updated 01:38 UTC
Brackley Town vs South Shields Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.89 expected goals for Brackley Town and 1.46 for South Shields, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives South Shields the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
South Shields win
50.5% probability
Expected goals
0.89 – 1.46
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Brackley Town home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
South Shields away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates South Shields to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 23% / 27% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.89 goals for Brackley Town and 1.46 for South Shields, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.9%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–210.2%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–29.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.15 (model 54.8% vs market 43.7%, edge +11.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.15 | 43.7% | 54.8% | 1.82 | +11.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.80 | 50.2% | 50.5% | 1.98 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 73.2% | 73.5% | 1.36 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.91 | 49.4% | 49.6% | 2.02 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.6% | 26.6% | 3.76 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 3.90 | 23.2% | 23.0% | 4.35 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.22 | 77.4% | 77.1% | 1.30 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 56.3% | 45.2% | 2.21 | -11.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Brackley Town
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Radcliffe · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hednesford Town · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Spennymoor Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelmsford City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs South Shields · 3-2 (W)
South Shields
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Macclesfield · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Buxton · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Brackley Town · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Buxton · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Witton Albion · 7-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League - North table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 26 |
| 2 | Oxford City | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 3 | Macclesfield | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 24 |
| 4 | South Shields | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 23 |
| 5 | King's Lynn Town | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 6 | Hednesford Town | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 21 |
| 7 | Chester | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Buxton | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 9 | Bedford Town | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 19 |
| 10 | Hebburn Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Morecambe | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 17 |
| 12 | Spalding United | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 |
| 13 | Chorley | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 14 | Worksop Town | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 17 |
| 15 | Marine | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 16 |
| 16 | Harborough Town | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 17 | Scarborough Athletic | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 15 |
| 18 | Merthyr Town | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 19 | Radcliffe | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | -5 | 15 |
| 20 | Brackley Town | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 15 |
| 21 | AFC Telford United | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 22 | Darlington 1883 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -7 | 11 |
| 23 | Southport | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -10 | 10 |
| 24 | Spennymoor Town | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is South Shields win, at 50.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.